January 21, 2008
The 5% solution?
For the last few days, I have been seeing the news focus on the Time Warner Cables’ announced restructure of their pricing plans. Per their statements 5% of the subscribers use over 50% of the bandwidth. And the price is based on the downstream not the upstream. In other words, these are not netizens who are doing peer to peer to services with upstreams. They are users.
What should be the reaction? My first thought is that I have a disconnect in the information given, since Wired Magazine told me over two years ago that the peer to peer crowd is at 4% and growing at a much faster pace. Is TWC only targeting a section of that? Are some peer to peer types buying appropriate services? How does the idea of an advertising based business model work with this?
Is there a business to pay for the upgrade based on commercials? Does making the decision now to change the pricing model represent good regulatory prowess? Are they isolating a minority that the rest of us will not relate to as our future (despite what Wired said)? If video is the reason for the bandwidth consumption, does the pricing model reflect some internal pressure that could exist from the content side of the company? After all, TWC is the one with the largest content play of all the cable companies. Could this be considered anticompetitive for over the top video services? Will AOL be able to position itself as a caching service, or buying power for improved service?
So at the end of the day, I am looking for feedback from the 5%?
Let me know if you have been kicked off, restricted, or purchased a new plan.
Posted by carl at 08:56 AM | Comments (0)
December 26, 2007
The Year of User Interfaces
I love Jeff, but I often disagree with him. And Facebook is one of those places. As he sings its praises, I look for the meta message. Besides Facebook, we have Ebay/Skype looming on the edge of innovation, Google’s Android and perhaps the best marketed - Apple with their continuing array of devices.
What is this all about? Web 2.0? I don’t think so. Talking to the widget wonks is like only watching the boys half of the beauty and the geek series.
However, if you only spend time on the app side, you will only be looking at the pretty face and not the underlying genius that makes it valuable.
And the value is in the understanding of how people use things. And trust me this deserves a museum of its own. The ability to make something visual appealing while you use it is art and science blended together. The Sidekick’s flip of the screen above the keyboard. The iPhone’s web browser going from horizontal to vertical based on position. These are subtle design strategies that needed advocates.
Everyone one of these companies have design decisions looming that will either make them “kewl” or will cool the market hype. Lets talk about what looms for them all.
Apple - has the “kewl” factor and good will in spades right now. But it’s got pressure to open up and let others play in its carefully controlled experience. And frankly not many of us are Apple like in our design skills. So they have the most to lose.
Ebay/Skype - probably has the best situation. After the battering its been taking from so many sides small wins will have great celebration. Their big headache is keeping the power of their presence engine and heavy stack working on wireless devices that are not particularly friendly. Additionally, a reworking of the strategic thinking they started almost 3 years ago is in order now that Apple and Google have changed the game at the edge.
Google, probably has the hardest navigating to do. Being the search mavens are expected to make the world safe for an open environment. Its hard to imagine making it easy to navigate an environment where every app wants to be listed first. My expectation is that the Google phone when delivered will be more screen than phone. And these days that may not be a bad thing.
As for Facebook first my warning... As Dr. Frank-N-furter said to Janet in Rocky Horror Picture Show “ I did not make him for you ”. So here is my view of the issues for facebook. Navigation. Not only the Navigation of all the people adding to the mix with apps and asynchronous broadcast messages Navigating good will into real value. My friend who loves the fact that 75,000 subscribers have joined his service needs to see that volume translate into real value.
It’s going to be a fun year for spectators like me.
Posted by carl at 04:39 PM | Comments (0)
October 17, 2007
Leo Chan Asks about MVNOs
Question Details:
--------------------
Mixed signals as Disney shut down MVNO, Helio cut handset price, Virgin Mobile IPO, and did anyone notice that ILEC based MVNOs remain standing?
Did anyone notice that the ILEC based MVNOs are still alive and kicking (see recent stories from Embarq)? Which of the following do you think contribute to their success (if you can call it that)? Will they last? What could be their exit if there needs to be one or there will be one?
1) Cost efficiency thanks to the shared back office used by the ILEC.
2) Market intelligence. After all they are the phone companies!
3) Keeping it low profile. What kills an MVNO? Success! Because of the subsidies.
4) They're losing socks and pants but somehow they manage to keep it afloat by cutting in the profitability of other services.
A very interesting question, and with our former telco background in common, I know you will appreciate that I did a spit take on the second possibility.
I think the issue is that we have not understood the complexities of brand vs. trust. I believe you can make a case for the iPhone being a new type of MVNO. The web in your hand at the end will be Apple's look and feel regardless of your using att or Orange.
The other side of the equation is the brand folks had no margin management in their deals. Its rough to work that way. Embarq can build a bundle and find efficiencies or subsidies as would call it.
Last but not least the consumer is not there yet. Like the the adoption of new energy providers. People still know who it is that delivers the service. IMHO if MVNOs were to learn from some of the Thomson set top boxes for triple play and became femto MVNOs that would be very powerful.
Kind Regards,
Carl
PS big discussions about Femtocells at VON this year
Posted by carl at 08:10 AM | Comments (3)
April 13, 2007
Events Resumes
I have just finished writing documents that represent the events for the rest of the year. Some of them are short, some are long, but all of them are good starting points to seek advice.
Whether I make money with the advice or not, I am sure the discussions with our customers will be helpful.
I have written the event resumes for Fall VON, Unified Communication, Fixed Mobile Convergence, VONDEX and the New Market Peering Summit.
Posted by carl at 06:13 AM | Comments (0)
April 10, 2007
Webinars promoting Spring VON Europe
I chatted with some friends starting with this email.
I am running the next several months of webinars with the goal of promoting Spring VON Europe. BUT the registrations are coming primarily from the US still.
I could explain it a number of ways... but I need your help to make sure I am not kidding myself.
1)Webinars are more popular in the US.
2)The time slot of 2PM GMT is not good.
3)The copy is too American somehow. please see http://webinars.pulvermedia.com/archives/2007/03/peer_to_peer_wi.html
The content of this session is fresh from the IETF meetings in Prague so I think that is not the problem. Which leaves some issues with my presentation.
Any advice would be greatly appreciated.
The feedback has pointed out, how myopic I am in looking at time.
Many people are far more observant than I am about the details which I tend to gloss over.
It should be an interesting to see how much I improve.
Posted by carl at 05:35 AM | Comments (0)
April 05, 2007
Next Generation
My Next Generation Network hat is on...
Its a cap that says "Tourist" because the lingo has changed and areas that appeared familar are now strange to me.
Can someone give me a soure they trust on these topics.
Service Delivery,
Unified Communications,
Anything 2.0
I went from giving it, getting it, too... questioning it.
Help welcome.
Posted by carl at 06:20 AM | Comments (0)
April 04, 2007
Retroactive Posting
Okay here is a question.... what about countries like China, Dubai, etc.
How do we account for deep packet inspection and session controllers?
Do I count packets being sniffed as "unfettered"?
Posted by carl at 06:36 AM | Comments (0)
March 30, 2007
Good Moderators
I sent this note out to a friends and past speakers at the pulvermedia events.
I am looking to change the moderator role for our shows in the future. We want to have press and/or analysts moderate. If you have a few minutes could you please introduce me to your recommended moderators?
The responses are interesting. Because often it points out to me how the people see moderators.
Some like very structured sessions and some like very loose ones.
I am a very loose moderator.
Perhaps I need to enable more structure.
Posted by carl at 05:26 AM | Comments (0)