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January 30, 2008
- Yikes! Or Yahoo!
Note to all Readers: I am not an insider and no one of substance to my knowledge is listening to me.
For my unregular readers, I want to remind you that I am not a Google evangelist. And since the days of Brad Park managing to break the IM monopoly I have been a Yahoo! fan. So the Yahoo! earnings and layoff announcements does not make me happy.
So if I were Jerry Yang, here are the questions I would be thinking.
1) I am shucking everything with no growth, but are any of these something I should be sending to VC friends to help in my battle with Google. Afterall, the Internet’s major contribution is the death by a thousand cuts model. And anything that helps attack Google is a benefit to me at this point. Outsourcing competition is a good strategy.
2) Can I make my local market strategy with newspapers more valuable. They are my channel, but their websites are not as strong with Yahoo as they can be. Can the Job Listings, turn into a local advertising. Is it possible to make a Adwords /AdSense service that supports growth. Is there a Soccer Mom social network to be had in that channel?
3) If there is nothing there, should I run an Oracle strategy and acquire my growth. Yahoo’s market cap is strong enough that I could acquire some smokestacks that will make my content more valuable. Companies like McGraw Hill, Idearc, RR Donnelly are targets that would get a lot of respect from those of us who are not NetHeads.
4) My old friends at Softbank and their Ali Baba solution. Should I be working to create a US channel strategy for them. Microsoft and I have been talking for ages. Is their something there that makes a major shift in my strategy.
Finally, Wall Street is to distracted by larger factors, so a slow and steady strategy will be respected.
Posted by carl at 08:49 AM | Comments (0)
January 29, 2008
The Nextpoint Meeting
I visited Nextpoint yesterday.
The visit was a preparation for the webinar on February 7th, but it was also a chance to hear about the merger of Reefpoint and Nextone. The name Nextpoint is probably more apt then I realized when I first heard the name. I thought it was a simple blend of the names, but the reality is that it matches the vision of where the company expects the market to grow.
As we become a massively mobile society, the Fixed Mobile convergence (substitution) story will have some major changes in the core of the network. The good news for carriers are there lots of opportunities for new services that are not direct to the consumer, but a blend of enablers that allow the end user and the application provider to benefit from the network operators infrastructure.
I will let them share their insights in the webinar, but it’s a good way to think about the Web 2.0 drivers and how they impact carriers.
Posted by carl at 06:56 AM | Comments (0)
January 28, 2008
VONCamp Agenda Bash All Welcome
The unconference at Spring VON is about to get busy, by way of the virtual experience on www.voncamp.net. Last year at Fall VON we held our first unconference and this time promises to be bigger and better. Combined with the Innovators Forum there is no better place for Web 2.0 and Telco 2.0 types to meet and look for the business models that make both sides of the equation happy.
But to put a framework around the unconference is hard after all, the rules start off with rule #1 being there are no rules. However, there are participants and they have the floor, the agenda,the lessons, and the network to bring opportunties out where they can grow. Want to be part of the excitement come join the discussion as the Tom Howe, Alec Saunders and Brough Turner share their expectation and what they want to address at the unconference.
Discussants on this call include
Tom Howe; CEO, Thomas Howe Company
Alec Saunders, CEO, Iotum
Brough Turner, SVP & CTO, NMS Communications
Moderated by Carl Ford and Bill Kelly of pulvermedia.com
http://www.iian.ibeam.com/events/mult001/25461/
Posted by carl at 10:50 PM | Comments (1)
January 26, 2008
Never on a Sunday emails
At pulvermedia we don't normally send out emails on the weekend.
Yet strangely enough it appears to me, the most likely time for execs to email each other.
Interesting
Posted by carl at 06:10 PM | Comments (0)
January 24, 2008
“DoublePlusUnGood” Guidance
Watching the stock market these days is a lot like being on a roller coaster, with a blindfold, and the distant sound of thumps. I chose the lingo of George Orwell’s 1984 to express the frustration with the “doublespeak” I feel happens when watching and reading about the market.
The funny thing is that I often see the same companies on the positive and negative side of the stock equation. Given the fact that the stock market is efficient. I can only believe one thing. They know something I don’t know. The market is probably reacting in the context of previous buying or selling decisions. I do not have the ability to pay attention that way. So I am not going to be a day trader anytime soon.
Still, I am thinking of turning my attention to stocks and writing about the industry. Particularly the VoIP industry has taken some hits. And my own take is that anyone that has survived at this point is fair game for a comeback.
One place where I am thinking of putting a small amount of money is Counterpath [COPA.OB]. This has also been an interesting company. On the one side, most of us have heard of them (perhaps as X.10 perhaps as NewHeights) and they have had a steady stream of our industry leaders working for them. But the company has not always been stable and there have been some interesting management / investor issues from time to time.
But Sir Terry and Owen are now at the helm. And I think its worth taking a look at. Given its history this is probably not a short term play and its not a sure thing. Danielle and Henry are polishing off their work on Adobe’s Pacifica project which may make softclients universal in your browser and wireless is going to make softclients less relevant in theory.
At .40 cents a share COPA.OB looks like a small risk in a strange environment. So how risk adverse are you given the fact we see titanic shifts at the top.
Posted by carl at 10:22 AM | Comments (1)
January 23, 2008
VONCAMP! Nothing to Promote but something to participate in.
I don’t know how to sing the praises of the unconference, but here goes.
On Tuesday March 18th for the benefit of speakers and conference attendees we will be having our second unconference. We named it VONCamp because its along the lines of barcamp, and other unconferences. As an unconference, I can not tell you what the topics are, but the participants will include Tom Howe, Alec Saunders, and Brough Turner and other industry leaders. The topics will be about things like; “Is facebook app friendly”, “Will Android be the next iPhone”, etc...
This is an extension of the innovator’s forum and a great place to participate.
So come if you want to be a discussant start participating at http://www.voncamp.net and if you want to listen register http://www.von.com/2008/sanJose/web/confUnConf.php and use the priority code “voncamp” for a savings of $400 for the one day pass.
Posted by carl at 08:11 AM | Comments (0)
January 21, 2008
When A Nokia VP talks we should listen...
Veli-Pekka Kivimaki ,Nokia speaks at 9 AM on March 19th at Spring VON
Veli Pekka (VP) Kivimaki has been working on supporting the Enterprise and business users use of Nokia’s wireless devices. This includes supporting Nokia’s Dual Mode, WLAN, and integration of Unified Communication services. He is at the edge where employees as end users are more in control than the enterprise itself. And its clear that the employee and the employer (as represented by IT) have a gap in their view of Unified communication.
While companies waffle regarding the use of VoWiFi, the emphasis on productivity gains when CRM and other corporate apps meets mobility is considered a given. But while the employee is seeing the web on wireless as the great gain, so the tie into the apps is incrementatl value.
And the employees are gaining in plurality as smartphone prices drop below $200 the device in hand are likely to be personal preference. Already indicators are that over half of the employees who only own personal cell phones reference them in their away messages.
The result is more power on the edge and that normally drives working groups to move independently from the IT staff.
And as more employees look to access the corporate network via the wireless web the concern for security mounts in the IT department.
This is not a service provider but the business implementation issue and it requires sound strategies by IT to support the gain, while avoiding the pain. These are among the strategies Nokia is looking to support and foster when it comes to Unified Communication.
Posted by carl at 11:35 AM | Comments (0)
The 5% solution?
For the last few days, I have been seeing the news focus on the Time Warner Cables’ announced restructure of their pricing plans. Per their statements 5% of the subscribers use over 50% of the bandwidth. And the price is based on the downstream not the upstream. In other words, these are not netizens who are doing peer to peer to services with upstreams. They are users.
What should be the reaction? My first thought is that I have a disconnect in the information given, since Wired Magazine told me over two years ago that the peer to peer crowd is at 4% and growing at a much faster pace. Is TWC only targeting a section of that? Are some peer to peer types buying appropriate services? How does the idea of an advertising based business model work with this?
Is there a business to pay for the upgrade based on commercials? Does making the decision now to change the pricing model represent good regulatory prowess? Are they isolating a minority that the rest of us will not relate to as our future (despite what Wired said)? If video is the reason for the bandwidth consumption, does the pricing model reflect some internal pressure that could exist from the content side of the company? After all, TWC is the one with the largest content play of all the cable companies. Could this be considered anticompetitive for over the top video services? Will AOL be able to position itself as a caching service, or buying power for improved service?
So at the end of the day, I am looking for feedback from the 5%?
Let me know if you have been kicked off, restricted, or purchased a new plan.
Posted by carl at 08:56 AM | Comments (0)
January 20, 2008
The Ning Thing reaches 400
Posted by carl at 11:42 AM | Comments (0)
January 19, 2008
Capitalism protects Civil Liberties
I love irony. I don’t know if you have been watching the discussion in the news about the phone companies and the use of wiretaps. Many telco’s after 9/11 starting doing wiretaps for the government without the proper court documentation. Well now, they are cutting them off, because the government hasn’t been paying their bills for the service.
Posted by carl at 08:40 AM | Comments (0)
January 18, 2008
What we have here, iAndroid, is a failure to Navigate
Tom Howe, who is track chair for Spring VON’s Unconference and Innovators Forum has two very good posts on the smartphone opportunities. The first as a guest on Om Malik’s GigaOM, Tom shares his thoughts on the concerns about Android.
I have been subscribed to the message board and at some point I was trying to figure out a way to give a read out, but the noise level made me abandon the idea of giving a good synopsis.
Here is what I think I know about Android. Google has a RIM like development tool. It is not mind blowing and in the end the navigation is not clearly intuitive. App developers are going to be regulated to submenus and its not clear how that the protection from malware is sufficient for badly coded apps, and subscribers ability to remove things after they have been put on the phone. Additionally, it looks like there will be flavors of phones that will require careful consideration in the look, feel and navigation of the devices.
The second post is on Tom’s own blog about the MacWorld announcement that in this new release of iPhone software the top menu can be added to by developer’s. This combined with some of the cool apps that are still being displayed by the likes of Google with gOffice and ZoHo with iZoho .
PS apologies to Cool Hand Luke and Issac’s Asminov’s I, Robot
Background
http://gigaom.com/2008/01/12/5-who-wont-appreciate-google-android/
http://thethomashowecompany.com/339/new-iphone-release-is-groundbreaking
http://webworkerdaily.com/2008/01/17/five-unsung-iphone-applications-most-of-them-free/
Posted by carl at 06:58 AM | Comments (0)
January 17, 2008
- SOA What’s new at the end of the day
Okay, this is going to take better minds than mine for the next year to get straight. My general rule for companies in merger acquistion mode is leave them alone for a year and then see where they stand. For Oracle, I have yet to find a timeline that works for the digestive process of companies. HotSip, TimesTen, PeopleSoft, Siebel, Telephony@work, Metasolv, etc - and now BEA. With Cisco, you always assumed IOS would eat the acquisiton and keep the developers. But with Oracle...nothing looks like a feature addition in Oracle DB. Its like the digestion of these companies is constipated. In theory, they should be the DB that does telecom best. In reality, I don’t see it.
Likewise, I am trying to get my thoughts gathered about MySQL being part of SUN. Is SUN going to better integrate JAVA into MySQL? Is Java going to compete for the P part of the acronym LAMP? Linux, Apache, MySQL, PHP (LAMP) has beed driving a lot of the web 2.0 market for over a decade... Probably SUN digests MySQL better than Oracle does BEA, but that’s only the symptom not the trend.
The trend is that the stars are aligning for better integration of Web 2.0 services. Its time for the Service Oriented Architecture to be put to the test and for me personally, I am skeptical.
Here is why.
At 60,000 feet the web 2.0 guys are exciting as hell to watch and they can attract lots of people to play with their stuff. But nothing in the acquistion of trial users is as valuable as a usage statistic that shows real activity day after day. A discussion I was part of yesterday pointed out that 30% of the a specifically email strong companies customer’s had moved to Facebook because SPAM made email no longer valuable. In someways, I will make the case that many of the APPS on facebook are little more than mashup spam.
So what makes Web 2.0 valuable is the ability to control (and I mean regress) the trials to something more mobile. Network operators are looking for the API holy grail and Oracle and SUN are looking to be at the heart of giving it to them. This is where the story is in Telecom and the Internet today and VoIP is another set of initials that belong in the LAMP / SOA mix of tools.
Posted by carl at 05:52 AM | Comments (0)
January 15, 2008
I thought You Said you Want a Revolution...
Note on March 18th, 2008 at Spring VON Reed Hundt, Former FCC Chair will be speaking in the conference.
Last week, Frontline wireless shut its doors and ended its effort for a revolution in the 700 MHz auction. When Amol Shah spoke at Fall VON we a 700 MHz evangelist speaking on behalf of a new network strategy for wireless. The strategy was for the spectrum to be wholesaled enabling device manufacturers to interconnect their devices on a network that was not trying to compete with them with the consumer.
To me the strategy had merit. First of all MVNO’s have been hard to watch as a business model. The more apt term would have been ISNO (indentured servant network offering). As in there “is no” way I am the one that is profiting from all this effort. So based on that experience a service that clearly wanted to let the retailed devices have a platform makes a lot of sense.
In fact, Apple’s iPhone was sort of a proof of concept since they redefined the MVNO relationship and showed that at the retail level the consumer’s power was self-evident. And the fact that so much discussion about hacked phones enabling choice, in my mind, made an enabling network logical.
So why did the money dry up for Frontline? The capital strength of a Google? The recent willingness of carriers to adopt more Apple like business models? The lack of device manufacturers committed to the same vision?
It could just be ego. If you have read Seth Godin’s “The Dip” you know that being number 1 is far more profitable than being number 2. Given the desire to enable others’ may have sounded like good altruism, but lousy business.
But that does not mean it was wrong. And it does not mean that in the end it won’t prevail. In the end there is only the Internet, imho, Frontline Wireless was trying to bring the wireless Internet to the end user faster. And that would be a revolution.
Posted by carl at 09:15 AM | Comments (1)
January 14, 2008
A Call to Action: Making IP Phones “Just Work”
Your home phones and your cell phones are very easy to diagnose. They either “just work” or they don’t. But when it comes to IP Phones the configuration can be anything but easy. How come it’s so hard to get an IP phone connected to the network? What issues need to be addressed? We will start with implementation issues.
The implementation of standards has been subjective. Standards compliance can be claimed, while still pushing for proprietary implementations. Interoperability tests have been done in a manner that lets compliance be proven in private and leaving the public uncertain as to what is available for use when connecting to network operators. Worse of all network operators have supported plain POTS interconnection, while leaving compliant IP phones beyond the scope of their network configuration.
This webinar is a call to action in the autodiscovery and configuration of IP phones. The assumption is that as a base the use of protocols (such as DIAMETER and TR-162) should enable autodiscovery independent of proprietary information. As a result the device should be configurable with a service provider or proxy server. Interested parties are invited to join the call and work with the rest of the industry to deliver on this vision for IP phones to just work. Our first Birds of a Feather meeting will be March 18th at Spring VON.
This Webinar will be held January 30th at 10:00 AM EST
Posted by carl at 03:07 PM | Comments (0)
January 10, 2008
The Disconnect of Connectivity
Yesterday, I sent a note to the community that is a summary of this blog. I had about 1500 out of office replies.
For some work I am doing outside of pulver, I have been looking at how many of us have cell phones that are not authorized by our corporation.
But in watching the out of office replies, I think it is safe to say that some of us are subsidizing our employers with the use of our cell phone on our Out of Office notice.
Now the reason I think this is interesting is because the cooler phone selection is becoming a personal decision, not a corporate one.
So where do these worlds collide?
I would love to hear your thoughts.
Posted by carl at 07:24 AM | Comments (0)
January 09, 2008
A Little Fun at the 700 MHz expense
Office chatter,
User "I just realized why my cable companies recorder gets filled up. I am recording the HD stations"
Vidiot "So when its all HD in 400 days will you have enough storage?"
User "No, of course not"
Abuser "I guess you will just have to buy more storage"
Vidiot "Why do you have to pay for more anything?"
All "That's progress"
Posted by carl at 12:04 PM | Comments (0)
January 08, 2008
FMC is not a Carrier Play!
FMC is not a Carrier Play!
Internal to pulvermedia, I have had to contend with some friends who have their ears to the community like I do. They believe that Fixed Mobile Convergence is a discussion to have with carriers based on their contacts with various vendors.
I strongly disagree. Right now we are seeing the convergence occur at the management level. I have already talked about Verizon’s integration of their two lines of business, but at att (I like that visual text) the want to “own Orange”. By owning “Orange” they are not talking about France Telecom and its affiliates, they are talking about having the customers of Cingular (whose logo was orange) to see themselves as att subscribers. Unlike Verizon’s executive bios, which showed a return to the fixed LOB by wireless execs. The att exec bios read like a evolution took place, “we also had the the strategy of wireless in our plans and now it is complete” is a good paraphrase.
But even with the integration. The story is not going to be fixed vs wireless battlefront. No one was the munitions. The story is in serving the enterprise. This is where the battle will rage not internally but externally. Wireless has slammed around in the consumer market with little to be gained in the near future. Even with the use of femtocells in the home, little can be gained that can’t be done with just billing rules, and worse yet the set-top box is going to be the more important drive in the consumer triple play.
But for the Enterprise, a lot is to be gained in the meet point. The value proposition is not measured in cost savings. But in the work flow. I would submit that email fundamentally shortened the time line for projects to be completed. The ability to make that email mobile is going to have more than an incremental impact in the workflow. So if we just got office email in the hands of the employees that would be good.
However, normally the call to action involves more than email. It requires conference calls, inputs into systems and edits in websites, documents, presentations and spreadsheets. This is the opportunity that lies ahead.
My own personal bias is that the value that iPhone brought with a full browser is a teaser to the demand we will see for a fully integrated wireless Internet. And that is where the battlefront will be for FMC.
Posted by carl at 12:47 PM | Comments (1)
January 07, 2008
Need Help: Can't See (HD) Straight
With the announcement that Blu-Ray has won over Time Warner's Warner Bros for their format, my local radio was telling me HD was in trouble.
But I am old and this current generation of next generation technology sounds like the Beta vs. VHS battle. Now my brother was a vidiot and spent the equivalent of my salary on BetaMax and VideoDiscs.
Me... Most of the movies I want to see are in Black and White and Turner could deliver them in picturebooks with a cassette and I would not complain.
So here is the question. Is their a standard that lends itself to Over the Top Video? In theory IP does not care, but are some standards better at delivery over the Internet then others?
Any help would be appreciated.
Posted by carl at 01:32 PM | Comments (0)
January 03, 2008
Mobile Video Coming to a disk near you
- I read an article by Lee Gomes about Flash Drives getting to the point where Video on mobile is going to be hot this year.
The type of memory found in digital camera’s is getting so inexpensive its making video possible for digital cameras. Lee Gomes explains “... people, especially younger ones, watch movies on their PCs, something no one would have believed just a few years ago, but they will watch them in a matchbook-size display.
And its not just a distinction in the viewing. The digital cameras, for instance, now have enough memory to capture significant amounts of video, making them competitive with camcorders.
I am thinking we will see Flash Drives readers be incorporated into PVRs and set tops?
Here is an idea. YouTube meets Netflixs. Providing a distribution service of mailing flash memory.
Background:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119923244752860941.html
Posted by carl at 03:38 AM | Comments (0)
January 02, 2008
- Time to get back to work.
I am flying up to Boston after spending almost a month away from the office, for a discussion about Spring VON and Spring VON Europe . Like many of the community I use VON as a benchmark of what is going on in the community, and I recognize that we are seeing a transition.
Among my carrier friends, I hear the nervousness brought on by rumors and realities of consolidations, mergers, and reengineering. In the vendor community I feel the uneasiness as customers and clients change roles and redefine their requirements. And in the vendor community I see the exhuberance of new strategies with the trepidation as the business model continues to be elusive.
We could make the case that all applications in the future will be residing on permission based marketing model driven by portals and web 2.0 interfaces. I am skeptical about this, but it could be that the Innovator’s dilemma has a new world order to study where applications find open access via customer’s community of interests.
It can also be that kewl kids end up with their own requirements for network performance that will make them focus on the infrastructure, or at least how to manage it.
While these things are not easily considered they are the real work ahead of us. Whatever part of the food chain you happen to be in, you have a perspective on these matters.
I hope you share them with me.
Posted by carl at 12:34 AM | Comments (0)
January 01, 2008
How About a New Name for Social Networks
Had a long IM chat with a friend who loves Facebook.
I am of the belief that when you sell you do so on merit not on social elements.
When someone I don't know asks me about my personal life, they lose my initial good will.
But many people want to be treated like pals automatically.
Dale Carnegie taught me people want to be called by their name and understood to be more than their job.
I am particularly good with this at restaurants.
But on Social Networks, I am feeling privacy is being lost.
So I want to call the Ning Thing (as seen at www.pulvermediacommunity.net) something other than social
its a business network? A community network? and Industry Gathering (deliberately avoiding the term association)
What is it I want to be social about. I am not looking for the Virtual Water Cooler
What about you?
Posted by carl at 09:34 AM | Comments (0)